Нефтяные доходы и особенности формирования национальных сбережений в Азербайджане

Ахмедов Б.

Российский экономический журнал. 2023. № 4. С. 91–106.

Russian Economic Journal. 2023;(4): 91–106.

Научная статья УДК 330.5

https://doi.org/10.52210/0130-9757_2023_4_91

НЕФТЯНЫЕ ДОХОДЫ И ОСОБЕННОСТИ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ НАЦИОНАЛЬНЫХ СБЕРЕЖЕНИЙ В АЗЕРБАЙДЖАНЕ

Бахыш Ахмедов, Азербайджанский государственный экономический университет, Баку, Азербайджан bahmadov@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0478-5514

Аннотация. В странах, экспортирующих природные ресурсы, большое значение с точки зрения экономического развития имеет распределение доходов от ресурсов на потребление и сбережения, а также принятие решений об использовании сбережений в качестве внутренних и иностранных инвестиций. В частности, волатильность и ограниченная предсказуемость цен на нефть затрудняют использование этих доходов на основе подхода постоянного дохода. В статье оценивается влияние нефтяных доходов на показатели экономического развития Азербайджана. В частности, было установлено, что в 2000–2021 годы реальный эффективный обменный курс незначительно укрепился, а уровень внутренних цен был значительно ниже, чем в развитых странах. Также установлено, что связь между объемом нефтяных доходов, направляемых на потребление, и снижением уровня бедности в указанный период носит ограниченный характер. Кроме того, зависимость нормы сбережений от цены на нефть в стране была высокой. Также значительная часть национальных сбережений, формируемых за счет нефтяных доходов, направляется на иностранные инвестиции. Кроме того, относительно низкий уровень инвестиций в последние годы и относительно небольшая доля частного сектора в капитальных вложениях в стране делают целесообразным финансирование инвестиций частного сектора за счет нефтяных доходов. Поскольку доля банковских кредитов в финансировании инвестиций в основной капитал в Азербайджане невелика, эффект от снижения процентных ставок на рост потребления будет выше, чем от инвестиций. В связи с этим в целях повышения инвестиционной активности частного сектора, помимо снижения процентных ставок, считается целесообразным расширение финансирования инвестиций на льготных условиях через институты развития.

Ключевые слова: нефтяные доходы, национальные сбережения, потребление, инвестиции, валютный курс.

Для цитирования: Ахмедов Б. Нефтяные доходы и особенности формирования национальных сбережений в Азербайджане // Российский экономический журнал. 2023. № 4. С. 91–106. https://doi. org/10.52210/0130-9757_2023_4_91.

Original article

OIL REVENUES AND FEATURES OF THE FORMATION OF NATIONAL SAVINGS IN AZERBAIJAN

Baghish Ahmadov,

Azerbaijan State Economic University (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan

bahmadov@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0478-5514

Abstract. The allocation of resource revenues to consumption and savings, and the decision to use savings as domestic and foreign investment, is essential for economic development in resource-exporting countries. The volatility and limited predictability of oil prices make it difficult to use these revenues based on a permanent income approach. The article assesses the impact of oil revenues on Azerbaijan’s economic development indicators. In particular, the real effective exchange rate strengthened slightly, and the level of domestic prices was significantly lower than in developed countries in 2000–2021. It also found that the relationship between the volume of oil revenues allocated for consumption and the reduction in poverty in the specified period is limited. Studies show that the dependence of the savings rate on the price of oil in the country was high. Also, a significant part of national savings generated from oil revenues is directed to foreign investment. In addition, the relatively low level of investment in recent years and the relatively small share of the private sector in capital investment in the country make it appropriate to finance private sector investment from oil revenues. Since the share of bank loans in financing investments in fixed assets in Azerbaijan is small, the effect of lowering interest rates on consumption growth will be higher than on investments. In this regard, in order to increase the investment activity of the private sector, in addition to lowering interest rates, it is considered appropriate to expand investment financing on preferential terms through development institutions.

Keywords: oil revenues, national savings, consumption, investment, exchange rate.

For citation: Ahmadov B. Oil revenues and features of the formation of national savings in Azerbaijan. Russian Economic Journal. 2023;(4): 91–106. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52210/0130-9757_2023_4_91.

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References

  1. Law of the Republic of Azerbaijan No. 439-IQ dated February 13, 1998 “On subsoil”. https://eqanun.az/framework/4273.
  2. Balassa B. The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal // Journal of Political Economy, 1964, 72 (6), p. 584–596. https://doi.org/10.1086/258965.
  3. Berg A., Portillo R., Yang S.C.S., Zanna L.F. Public investment in resource-abundant developing countries // IMF Economic Review,2013,61(1),pp.92–129.https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2013.1.
  4. Bhattacharyya S., Collier P. Public capital in resource rich economies: Is there a curse? // Oxford Economic Papers, 2014, 66(1), pp. 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gps073.
  5. Collier P., Van Der Ploeg R., Spence M., Venables A.J. Managing resource revenues in developing economies // IMF Staff papers, 2010, 57(1), pp. 84–118. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfsp.2009.16.
  6. Corden W. Dutch Disease in Australia: Policy Options for a Three-Speed Economy // Australian Economic Review, 2012, 45(3), pp. 290–304. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2012.00685.x.
  7. Corden W. M. Booming sector and Dutch disease economics: survey and consolidation // Oxford economic Papers, 1984, 36(3), pp. 359–380. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2662669.
  8. Corden W.M.,& Neary J.P. Booming sector and de-industrialisation in a small open economy // The economic journal, 1982, 92(368), pp. 825–-848. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2232670.
  9. Hausman Jerry A. Individual Discount Rates and the Purchase and Utilization of Energyusing Durables // Bell Journal of Economics, 1979, 10 (1), pp. 33–54. http://www.jstor.org/ stable/3003318.
  10. Hoppe Hans-Hermann. The Economics and Ethics of Private Property: Studies in Political Economy and Philosophy. Boston: Kluwer, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8155-4.
  11. Ito T., Isard P., Symansky S. (1999). Economic growth and real exchange rate: an overview of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in Asia // Changes in Exchange rates in rapidly Developing countries: theory, practice, and policy issues, T. Ito and A.O. Krueger, editors, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 109–132. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c8616/c8616.pdf.
  12. Lumley S. The environment and the ethics of discounting: An empirical analysis // Ecological Economics, 1997, 20(1), pp. 71–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(96)00073-0.
  13. Lutz Kilian. Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities, August 29, 2020, Working paper 2027, The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, https://doi.org/10.24149/ wp2027.
  14. Mommer B. Global Oil and the Nation State. Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press, 2002.
  15. Moore M.A., Boardman A.E., Vining A.R. Social discount rates for seventeen Latin American countries: theory and parameter estimation // Public Finance Review, 2020, 48(1), pp. 43–71. https://doi.org/10.1177/109114211989036.
  16. Ramey G., Ramey A. Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth // The American Economic Review, 1995, 85(5), pp. 1138–1151. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2950979.
  17. Rodrik D. The real exchange rate and economic growth // Brookings papers on economic activity, 2008, 39(2), pp. 365–439. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0020.
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Информация об авторе

Б. Ахмедов — к.э.н., доцент кафедры экономики и технологических наук, Азербайджанский государственный экономический университет, Баку, Азербайджан

Information about the author

B. Ahmedov — PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Technological Sciences, Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Baku, Azerbaijan

Статья поступила в редакцию 15.03.2023; одобрена после рецензирования 24.07.2023; принята к публикации 01.08.2023.

The article was submitted 15.03.2023; approved after reviewing 24.07.2023; accepted for publication 01.08.2023.